Light-Bulb
0x153b22e659b68393b0136df4ad94a27e523a65d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
59
Open notional
$10.5K
Total PnL
$444.87
Realised
$248.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
796 shares @ 79.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$696.37
$61.96
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
714 shares @ 70.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$639.29
$139.29
- NO
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
441 shares @ 68.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$437.43
$137.43
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
472 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$424.72
$4.72
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
556 shares @ 66.5¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$409.02
$39.02
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
435 shares @ 68.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$372.13
$72.13
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
352 shares @ 96.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$343.45
$3.45
- NO
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
337 shares @ 89.1¢·now 91.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$307.28
$7.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$302.00
$102.00
- NO
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
331 shares @ 90.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$295.87
$-4.13
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$160.00Jun 11, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$114.68Jun 11, 21:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$102.22Jun 9, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?$150.00Jun 9, 16:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 9, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?$270.67Jun 8, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$167.28Jun 8, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$102.00Jun 8, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$150.00Jun 8, 08:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$111.11Jun 8, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 8, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$100.00Jun 7, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$116.00Jun 7, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?$150.00Jun 7, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?$101.00Jun 7, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?$4.35Jun 7, 16:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $141.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 09:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.