Will Twice release a song in 2026?
Probability
47¢
1h
+3.9pp
24h
-5.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$380.74
Probability (last 7 days)
-34.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5994.8h
- 05:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5995h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 46¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 48¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 57¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 49¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 49¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 58¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 54¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 47¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 58¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 50¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.2pp
to 48¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.6pp
to 49¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.9pp
to 48¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 61¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 52¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.8pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.8pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.6pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.2pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.1pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.3pp
to 58¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (54.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).