0x15e262fc440d683729af65b08d0181e700ae5985
0x15e262fc440d683729af65b08d0181e700ae5985
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$75.51
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-51.28
Win rate
1%
187 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
15 shares @ 71.6¢·now 81.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.03
$1.40
- NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.90
$0.24
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
17 shares @ 19.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.65
$5.33
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 75.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.90
$1.87
- NEW YORK YANKEES
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
14 shares @ 52.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2026$6.48
$-0.85
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
31 shares @ 26.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.69
$-2.30
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.10
$0.15
- NO
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 28.9¢·now 54.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.58
$2.16
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 37.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.98
$0.30
- YES
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
33 shares @ 14.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$-1.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$2.62Aug 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$2.76Aug 11, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$2.90Aug 11, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$3.08Aug 11, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$3.22Aug 10, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$3.39Aug 10, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$3.59Aug 10, 06:29 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.73Aug 9, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $6.43Aug 9, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.33Aug 8, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$3.51Aug 8, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.69Aug 8, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$3.91Aug 8, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala$4.17Aug 2, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala$4.40Aug 2, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$4.56Jul 31, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.39Jul 30, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$4.19Jul 28, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$16.70Jul 28, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$3.23Jul 28, 09:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 187 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
187 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $3.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 13:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 187 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.