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0x166a49699aba5d7a9ce3142450062deedf83d7ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$21.5K
Total PnL
$1.4K
Realised
$2.0K
Win rate
71%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5500 shares @ 71.9¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$196.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3000 shares @ 63.5¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$-300.99
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1500 shares @ 89.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$80.84
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
1010 shares @ 52.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.0K
$471.02
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
1000 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$974.25
$24.97
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
1400 shares @ 64.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$972.78
$66.68
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
1000 shares @ 83.4¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$956.50
$122.30
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 82.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$945.00
$123.00
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
620 shares @ 82.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$579.28
$67.70
- NO
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
600 shares @ 87.8¢·now 92.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$555.90
$28.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$14.35Jul 29, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$2.66Jul 29, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$3.99Jul 29, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$76.00Jul 29, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$27.75Jul 29, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$29.20Jul 29, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$9.00Jul 29, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$46.12Jul 29, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$84.00Jul 29, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?$155.06Jul 29, 01:13 UTC
- TRADESELLEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?$9.39Jul 29, 01:13 UTC
- REWARD$0.15Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$62.20Jul 28, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$62.20Jul 28, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$20.63Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$77.54Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$2.95Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$18.90Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$8.08Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
75/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
38 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $43.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 09:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 16:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.