Murky-Effective
0x17fcc21babe7785148121f48175fcb1326fccaf4
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$142.02
Total PnL
$-69.44
Realised
$17.31
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
28 shares @ 73.2¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$26.23
$6.02
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
20 shares @ 92.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.84
$1.38
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 48.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.38
$2.89
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.45
$0.55
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
9 shares @ 66.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$8.90
$2.90
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
8 shares @ 76.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.89
$1.84
- NO
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$6.06
$0.06
- NO
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 68.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.00
$1.59
- NO
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$0.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?$2.01May 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?$0.96May 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?$6.00May 21, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?$3.03May 21, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May?$4.95May 21, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May?$4.70May 21, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May?$4.60May 20, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$8.94May 20, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?$5.00May 20, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$3.65May 20, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$10.26May 20, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$3.64May 20, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$1.07May 20, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$0.69May 20, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$0.69May 20, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump kiss by May 31?$2.67May 20, 03:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?$4.74May 19, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.76May 19, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?$4.90May 19, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?$0.02May 19, 16:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 12:50 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 17:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.