0x18aebad115474b9cdc437b1f83314a053e5ab9e9
0x18aebad115474b9cdc437b1f83314a053e5ab9e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$39.67
Total PnL
$-24.08
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.99
$-0.13
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.98
$-0.14
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.90
$-0.22
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 94.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.84
$-0.28
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 94.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.83
$-0.29
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.79
$-0.33
- YES
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?
4 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$4.43
$0.10
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by June 30?
4 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.34
$0.02
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 30.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.57
$-3.54
- YES
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
5 shares @ 97.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$4.62Jul 5, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$4.34Jul 5, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$4.33Jul 4, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$4.34Jul 2, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?$4.34Jul 2, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?$4.33Jul 2, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$4.32Jul 1, 12:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$4.33Jul 1, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?$4.32Jul 1, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June?$4.32Jul 1, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?$4.32Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$4.41Jul 1, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B?$4.36Jun 30, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June?$4.32Jun 30, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?$4.32Jun 30, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$4.33Jun 30, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?$4.32Jun 30, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,171,000 and $1,204,000 on June 30?$4.32Jun 30, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be greater than $572,000 on June 30?$4.32Jun 30, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$4.32Jun 30, 16:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 05:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 15:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.