Broken-Hermit
0x1946e97c0fbcbf687144f626513df2dee39a6367
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-18.68
Realised
$-1.93
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-03 House seat?
263 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$242.33
$7.90
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
130 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$129.90
$0.47
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
117 shares @ 47.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$54.52
$-1.18
- NO
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
63 shares @ 74.5¢·now 71.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$45.20
$-1.91
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
42 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$41.99
$0.65
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
42 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$41.93
$0.40
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
57 shares @ 48.2¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$41.63
$13.94
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
42 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$41.56
$1.07
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
130 shares @ 28.5¢·now 29.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$38.40
$1.28
- NO
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
42 shares @ 91.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$36.44
$-2.18
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$0.00Aug 20, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$0.42Aug 14, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$13.30Aug 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$10.38Aug 11, 18:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONKansas Governor Election Winner$5.78Aug 11, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?$0.01Aug 8, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?$0.01Aug 8, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?$0.00Aug 7, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?$8.89Aug 7, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 200k and 250k?$8.89Aug 7, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 150k and 200k?$8.89Aug 7, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$26.96Aug 7, 22:08 UTC
- REWARD$5.96Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?$1.25Aug 7, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?$1.24Aug 7, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Rasband earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$10.97Aug 7, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Africa Win the WSOP Main Event$0.00Aug 6, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oceania Win the WSOP Main Event$0.00Aug 6, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$0.00Aug 5, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$3.95Aug 5, 23:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $9.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 02:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 09:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.