Unwelcome-Licensing
0x1a58ea970d8907142573e23b04339980e736f18a
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$245.40
Total PnL
$-554.69
Realised
$-167.86
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
722 shares @ 16.5¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$184.10
$65.10
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1049 shares @ 6.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.66
$-18.33
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
77 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.77
$-4.23
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?
161 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.32
$-15.67
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
4 shares @ 48.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$-0.60
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7 shares @ 15.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.30
$0.30
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.84
$-0.16
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
2183 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-71.00
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?
1091 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$2.41Jun 24, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$25.00Jun 22, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$1.06Jun 22, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$36.00Jun 19, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?$36.46Jun 19, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$11.00Jun 17, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?$10.40Jun 17, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$41.00Jun 17, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine election held by December 31, 2026?$41.21Jun 17, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?$30.00Jun 17, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.00Jun 17, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$5.00Jun 16, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$14.00Jun 16, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine election held by December 31, 2026?$51.36Jun 16, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$1.00Jun 13, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$1.03Jun 13, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$63.00Jun 13, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$10.00Jun 13, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?$10.00Jun 13, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$82.37Jun 13, 19:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $16.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 19:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.