0x1ac6b3153f79f907f00d4042b66ee59de78eb2ed
0x1ac6b3153f79f907f00d4042b66ee59de78eb2ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$150.55
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$34.80
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 21.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$150.55
$3.55
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
14833 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-15.98
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
8188 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-54.98
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
7500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
5500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?
5068 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-40.98
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
4639 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-187.98
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.