Worrisome-Fresco
0x1b2ab8d32eb2348a639c9b6b99e5561e656e705f
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$123.49
Total PnL
$-21.30
Realised
$-0.28
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- NO
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 93.1¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.52
$1.52
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
9 shares @ 46.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.90
$3.90
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.07
$-0.93
- YES
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
10 shares @ 28.1¢·now 26.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.66
$-0.20
- NO
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.46
$0.46
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.29
$0.29
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.16
$0.16
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$1.05Aug 11, 05:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$1.06Aug 10, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.86Aug 10, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$1.86Aug 10, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$1.26Aug 10, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYGovernment shutdown by October 1?$1.01Aug 10, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$1.02Aug 10, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 9, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$2.06Aug 9, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$1.00Aug 9, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$2.00Aug 9, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 9, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?$1.00Aug 9, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 9, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.00Aug 9, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?$5.00Aug 9, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$1.80Aug 6, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$1.05Aug 6, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$2.02Aug 6, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?$1.00Aug 4, 10:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 17:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 05:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.