Daring-Stitch
0x1c40d2aca02af38d7faffd3397366346fa04445c
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-964.14
Realised
$142.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2145 shares @ 24.3¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$504.04
$-17.96
- YES
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
796 shares @ 30.4¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.11
$-59.37
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
408 shares @ 49.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.63
$-18.37
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
160 shares @ 66.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.00
$2.40
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
390 shares @ 24.5¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.25
$11.75
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
714 shares @ 11.1¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.29
$-14.71
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$52.48
$-47.52
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2323 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-144.90
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
488 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
315 shares @ 63.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$171.00Jul 27, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$171.53Jul 27, 04:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$85.00Jul 17, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$84.18Jul 17, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$95.00Jul 17, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$100.00Jul 17, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$194.93Jul 17, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$266.00Jul 17, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$10.26Jul 17, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$95.82Jul 17, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$18.56Jul 17, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$21.49Jul 17, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$31.86Jul 17, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$29.31Jul 17, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$4.10Jul 17, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$200.00Jul 17, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$200.00Jul 17, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$536.01Jul 17, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$150.64Jul 17, 07:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $100.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 15:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.