Perfumed-Moat
0x1cfc260bfa2b5ae89377863180ca3b4f5c862111
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$60.6K
Total PnL
$51.7K
Realised
$91.7K
Win rate
71%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
45927 shares @ 78.1¢·now 81.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.3K
$1.4K
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
46165 shares @ 22.7¢·now 19.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.1K
$-1.3K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5626 shares @ 83.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.8K
$128.49
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4989 shares @ 72.7¢·now 75.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.8K
$128.32
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5596 shares @ 58.5¢·now 53.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.0K
$-263.51
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6841 shares @ 20.8¢·now 20.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.4K
$-41.99
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13201 shares @ 19.2¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$-1.4K
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4918 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$124.93
$-1.15
- YES
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
72305 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-27.62
- YES
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
72305 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-27.62
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$49.25Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group C$175.00Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$259.02Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$133.25Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$269.77Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$725.74Jul 28, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Illegal" or "Illegals" during the next White House Press Briefing?$59.38Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 29?$4.56Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 29?$5.70Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$186.02Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$159.68Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$152.35Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$52.05Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$1.2KJul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$3.20Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$56.00Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$74.00Jul 28, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$28.00Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$598.02Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$16.12Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
67/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
87 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $173.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.