Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Probability
42¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$30.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+23.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 42¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.0h
- 13:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:59PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 43¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 41¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 41¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 36¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 38¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 38¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 39¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 39¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 40¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 40¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Attorney General will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Attorney General by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by June 30". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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