Hospitable-Maestro
0x206191d01c411a5b346d11a2df2d463a356b8ec9
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$162.6K
Total PnL
$-232.9K
Realised
$46.0K
Win rate
36%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
122221 shares @ 50.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$89.3K
$28.2K
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
122221 shares @ 50.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$32.9K
$-28.2K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20987 shares @ 75.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.5K
$639.06
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
10496 shares @ 61.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.0K
$-459.92
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
12216 shares @ 43.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.3K
$52.98
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
34251 shares @ 7.8¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.5K
$1.8K
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5299 shares @ 59.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.1K
$-24.55
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
9648 shares @ 21.8¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.0K
$-124.31
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2222 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$966.57
$-11.11
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
3333 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$916.58
$-16.66
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.35Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$12.24Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$12.22Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.33Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.78Jul 26, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$12.23Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.39Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.77Jul 25, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$12.24Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.72Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.03Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$3.0KJul 24, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$12.24Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.74Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.32Jul 23, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$10.84Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- SPLITWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$22.2KJul 22, 16:52 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.22Jul 22, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$10.26Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.41Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$12.8K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 20, 19:40 UTC → Jul 6, 20:55 UTC
- BUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.3K@67¢Jul 6, 20:55 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$7.3K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$7.3K · 57% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $62.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 02:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.