Oblong-Constitution
0x224b6854ae424d69b2cb4e71efa70c8dd7cf1050
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$3.37
Total PnL
$-268.09
Realised
$-5.04
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.92
$-0.08
- YES
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.58
$-0.42
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.38
$-0.64
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
31 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.26
- YES
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
10 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-1.24
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.09
$-0.91
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.97
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-1.18
- LOUD
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2
124 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$1.23Jun 30, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$1.04Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.99Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$3.42Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$2.04Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin not meet?$3.00Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$3.75Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$6.26Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.88Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLEdi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?$5.26Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$6.50Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$6.21Jun 30, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$6.21Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Allah again by June 30?$8.92Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$2.24Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$9.86Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?$4.53Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$5.28Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 8 countries in 2026?$5.05Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$2.52Jun 30, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 08:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.