GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$6.4K

Liquidity

$156.3K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
31
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$13k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$156k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official government information
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.8pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 21, 2026, 07:00 UTCJun 28, 2026, 06:06 UTC
updated 06:06:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-28T06-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $6.4k traded against $156.3k of visible liquidity (0.04× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 42h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 42 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official government information

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 0¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 41.9h

    HIGH
  • 06:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 42h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 06:06:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:06:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ukraine

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ukraine" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?"?

As of Sun, 28 Jun 2026 06:06:51 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.6M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $156.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket