0x24ac49ffec08109acfec4134bff2f5a65237b80a
0x24ac49ffec08109acfec4134bff2f5a65237b80a
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$48.71
Total PnL
$-1.23
Realised
$-0.16
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$7.36
$2.27
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
7 shares @ 72.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.89
$1.83
- YES
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
6 shares @ 66.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$6.30
$2.08
- YES
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$5.85
$0.73
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.27
$-0.82
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
13 shares @ 22.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.41
$0.47
- YES
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
3 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$2.50
$1.15
- YES
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$2.03
$0.45
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-02 House seat?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.87
$-0.01
- NO
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.83
$0.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.72May 11, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$1.13May 10, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$1.47May 8, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?$1.27May 6, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$1.80May 2, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$0.01Apr 30, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$0.01Apr 30, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$1.84Apr 30, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$4.52Apr 29, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$4.60Apr 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$1.68Apr 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$1.36Apr 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$2.67Apr 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$2.94Apr 26, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?$1.28Apr 24, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?$1.49Apr 24, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$2.72Apr 23, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?$1.32Apr 21, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?$4.33Apr 21, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$1.58Apr 21, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 17:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 22:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.