Fumbling-Mutton
0x2698268586501f7eaec7c9a5ba8bbddf5ec2a979
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-12.1K
Realised
$-1.8K
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 57.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$447.50
$162.50
- SEAN STRICKLAND
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
444 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$444.44
$364.44
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
4834 shares @ 9.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$103.45
$-334.86
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
713 shares @ 50.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$39.22
$-317.28
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
15486 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-356.79
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?
9920 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-324.73
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
9624 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-373.08
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?
8447 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-331.40
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
7068 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-296.35
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
6973 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-3.3K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.