Guilty-Screenwriting
0x269a791f2472add3e2cb446066d4d710ffab0837
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$3.6K
Total PnL
$-912.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
715 shares @ 69.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$504.13
$4.13
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
581 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$497.09
$-2.91
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
362 shares @ 82.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$330.93
$30.93
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
417 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$299.37
$-0.63
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
282 shares @ 71.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$235.21
$35.21
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
239 shares @ 79.5¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$217.54
$27.54
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
833 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$212.50
$12.50
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
328 shares @ 61.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$195.08
$-4.92
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
430 shares @ 46.5¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$178.52
$-21.48
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1002 shares @ 29.9¢·now 16.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$159.87
$-140.13
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 1, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.1KMay 31, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.6KMay 31, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$303.37May 31, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$206.08May 31, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$500.00May 31, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$502.80May 31, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$50.72May 31, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$200.00May 31, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$203.12May 31, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.49May 31, 18:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.05May 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05May 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05May 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06May 28, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $258.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".