Guilty-Screenwriting
0x269a791f2472add3e2cb446066d4d710ffab0837
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
715 shares @ 69.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$589.94
$89.94
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
581 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$549.42
$49.42
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
362 shares @ 82.9¢·now 95.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$345.94
$45.94
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
417 shares @ 72.0¢·now 73.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$307.91
$7.91
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
430 shares @ 46.5¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$260.25
$60.25
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
239 shares @ 79.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$219.93
$29.93
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1002 shares @ 29.9¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$199.96
$-100.04
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
328 shares @ 61.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$185.21
$-14.79
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
164 shares @ 61.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.72
$46.72
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
110 shares @ 91.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$105.33
$5.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$281.69Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.