Aged-Scenery
0x2814d522137052b40427447288bcd67fb6375596
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$749.82
Total PnL
$-6.7K
Realised
$-410.90
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
1668 shares @ 15.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$175.13
$-74.87
- YES
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
3935 shares @ 11.7¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$151.51
$-306.98
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
624 shares @ 56.1¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$130.99
$-219.01
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
604 shares @ 41.4¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$129.92
$-120.08
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
455 shares @ 22.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.18
$-56.82
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
80 shares @ 48.1¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.60
$-2.90
- YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
1285 shares @ 12.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.35
$-118.89
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
40 shares @ 62.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$34.20
$9.40
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
362 shares @ 9.6¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.94
$-20.82
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
33333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $20.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.