Writhing-Background
0x28637ff6dd310acf03e78c99986f2d42cc314ac0
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$24.85
Total PnL
$-567.95
Realised
$2.43
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.03
$7.03
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
14 shares @ 29.4¢·now 42.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.73
$1.73
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 8.9¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.24
$-0.76
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
7 shares @ 27.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$-0.81
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
22 shares @ 9.3¢·now 5.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$-0.89
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
20 shares @ 4.9¢·now 3.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.80
$-0.20
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.74
$-0.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$1.00Jun 7, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 5, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$1.00Jun 5, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$0.34Jun 5, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$1.00Jun 4, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.12Jun 4, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$12.64Jun 4, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?$1.00Jun 4, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$0.55Jun 4, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$1.00Jun 1, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$1.00May 15, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$0.01May 14, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$0.15May 9, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$1.04May 5, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?$1.00May 5, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?$1.00May 4, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$1.00May 4, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$1.00May 4, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$1.00May 4, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00May 4, 10:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 06:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 20:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.