Ironclad-Diamond
0x2869efa18cb55b1d8e9a5a607b90f33044bb527d
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$650.19
Total PnL
$-726.33
Realised
$909.67
Win rate
80%
120 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
61 shares @ 86.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$60.40
$7.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.85
$0.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.63
$0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.15
$-0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.13
$-0.27
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
53 shares @ 56.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$48.08
$18.11
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
50 shares @ 82.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$45.25
$3.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?
40 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$40.11
$0.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 29?
37 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.10
$0.32
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
34 shares @ 55.5¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$33.39
$14.53
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 9?$5.00Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on July 28?$30.00Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?$49.40Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$9.62Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?$49.40Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 28?$10.00Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or below on July 28?$50.00Jul 28, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 29?$36.78Jul 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?$49.40Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?$30.00Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?$39.93Jul 28, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?$49.40Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 27?$75.00Jul 28, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 27?$50.00Jul 28, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C or higher on July 27?$75.00Jul 28, 04:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?$9.62Jul 27, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?$30.00Jul 27, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?$9.62Jul 27, 21:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 120 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
120 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $27.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 17:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 120 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.