Ironclad-Diamond
0x2869efa18cb55b1d8e9a5a607b90f33044bb527d
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$915.41
Total PnL
$-426.19
Realised
$878.39
Win rate
79%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
60 shares @ 91.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$59.97
$5.07
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
61 shares @ 86.7¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$59.03
$6.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$49.98
$0.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$49.98
$0.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12?
50 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$49.98
$0.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13?
50 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$49.70
$1.05
- NO
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
57 shares @ 60.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$44.80
$10.56
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
50 shares @ 82.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$43.25
$1.95
- NO
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?
42 shares @ 34.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$41.98
$27.36
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
42 shares @ 65.3¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$39.54
$12.12
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 13?$50.00Jun 13, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13?$50.00Jun 13, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13?$49.20Jun 13, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12?$100.00Jun 13, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$6.50Jun 13, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$4.41Jun 13, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 13?$49.40Jun 13, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12?$50.00Jun 13, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12?$50.00Jun 13, 03:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLMahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?$0.90Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?$10.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12?$50.00Jun 12, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?$2.00Jun 12, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13?$49.40Jun 12, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12?$20.83Jun 12, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13?$48.65Jun 12, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13?$48.29Jun 12, 17:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12?$50.00Jun 12, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12?$50.00Jun 12, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $31.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.