Noteworthy-Lantern
0x28b808a1d87572b7ab86f17332ca349121575e00
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
198
Open notional
$5.6K
Total PnL
$-835.64
Realised
$-25.57
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 198- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
5750 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$258.67
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
27 shares @ 81.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.28
$-0.72
- NO
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
24 shares @ 75.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.66
$-1.34
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
15 shares @ 68.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.56
$3.56
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 46.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.12
$5.12
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
15 shares @ 39.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.94
$4.94
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 23.2¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.56
$0.56
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
137 shares @ 29.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.26
$-29.74
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
15 shares @ 41.3¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$9.52
$3.52
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
9 shares @ 88.9¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$8.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.47Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$2.00Jul 25, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$2.07Jul 25, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?$2.01Jul 25, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$2.01Jul 25, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$2.01Jul 25, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$2.01Jul 25, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$2.00Jul 25, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?$2.05Jul 25, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.80Jul 25, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$2.07Jul 25, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.00Jul 25, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$2.00Jul 25, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$2.00Jul 25, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$2.09Jul 25, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$2.00Jul 25, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 01:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.