Direct-Plumber
0x28c92641825bb0b0229980a000ff845ee80999aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$83.87
Total PnL
$-859.36
Realised
$34.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- OPENAI
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
1973 shares @ 44.8¢·now 2.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$43.41
$-840.50
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$40.25
$0.23
- YES
Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?
143 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.21
$-0.64
- YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
195 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-52.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMPenn State Nittany Lions vs. Akron Zips$4.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMGardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Devil Is Busy win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$196.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$400.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Crack Cocaine" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)$547.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,700,000 and 1,900,000?$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be greater than 2,300,000?$0.00Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMMid-America Christian Evangels vs. Campbell Fighting Camels$516.50Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$40.02Apr 23, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$36.12Apr 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$46.20Apr 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$121.20Apr 12, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$1.84Apr 12, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$122.36Apr 11, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$21.28Apr 11, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?$13.96Apr 10, 00:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $159.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 10:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 03:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.