Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Probability
66¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$654.00
Liquidity
$157.45
Probability (last 7 days)
+26.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 63¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 66¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 69¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 63¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 68¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 65¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 60¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 61¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 62¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 66¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 61¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 63¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 68¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 64¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 62¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.0pp
to 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).