Pessimistic-Brief
0x29b83617dc0b472bc12798707c7491ba5dc808e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
53
Open notional
$476.25
Total PnL
$-965.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
233 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$198.94
$-1.05
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
116 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.78
$13.78
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 74.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$83.31
$-16.69
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
109 shares @ 91.9¢·now 73.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$80.22
$-19.78
- UP
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
173 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.87
- NO
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-31?
167 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-95.00
- YES
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
137 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- SPURS
Spurs vs. Lakers
133 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
133 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of November?
132 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.