Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$280.05
Liquidity
$19.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+34.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 72¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 706h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 706.3h
- 13:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 706h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 72¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 72¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 72¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 72¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 72¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 72¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 72¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 72¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 72¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 65¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 65¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 65¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 65¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 65¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 65¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 66¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Venice, Italy mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 24 and 25, 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Venice as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Venice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).