Frozen-Fly
0x2c62db323ce36385fa3f6ebdfb67fa762034726b
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$20.90
Total PnL
$-11.5K
Realised
$-70.95
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
4 shares @ 96.6¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$0.03
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.46
$0.20
- NO
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
3 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.89
$-0.02
- NO
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.60
$0.05
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
3 shares @ 94.1¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.54
$0.10
- NO
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.11
$0.02
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.49
$-0.04
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.22
$0.02
- NO
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.13
$0.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
3172 shares @ 56.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.8K
Recent activity
- REDEEMJerome Powell federally charged by June 30?$2.82Jul 1, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?$3.64Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?$2.60Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$3.16Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$1.23Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$7.11Jun 24, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?$5.56Jun 21, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?$5.01Jun 21, 13:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$5.51Jun 19, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$6.59Jun 18, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.13Jun 17, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$6.02Jun 16, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?$1.05Jun 12, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$1.09Jun 12, 18:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$1.91Jun 12, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$1.44Jun 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?$1.00Jun 11, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$5.02Jun 6, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$6.43Jun 6, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.77Jun 6, 08:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $2.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 07:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.