Naughty-Tag
0x2cf9431dbb7dcbcd9b280d03cb529377c9d6a20f
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$46.95
Realised
$80.35
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
500 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$486.01
$21.00
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
230 shares @ 81.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$215.05
$27.45
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.50
$9.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
110 shares @ 53.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.14
$25.05
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
50 shares @ 84.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.73
$5.33
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
61 shares @ 81.3¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$35.07
$-14.54
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
30 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$25.65
$2.25
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
20 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.50
$4.30
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 13.9¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.47
$6.51
- NO
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.69
$1.19
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $40.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.