Polished-Carriage
0x2d34ce043e6d257dcafbc3a1dfc6723fb178bbff
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$364.53
Total PnL
$-248.61
Realised
$97.20
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
900 shares @ 8.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.50
$23.50
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
1298 shares @ 20.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$97.35
$-165.06
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
60 shares @ 66.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.10
$13.50
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
550 shares @ 9.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.25
$-9.25
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
770 shares @ 7.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.41
$-30.58
- YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
775 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.31
$-5.69
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
400 shares @ 4.5¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.60
$-0.40
- YES
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
591 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.82
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
520 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$28.72Jul 27, 00:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $16.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.