Wallet digest

active

Activity score

59/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$88.41

Total PnL

$-227.47

Realised

$-1.11

Win rate

24%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$15.01
$12.01
YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
9 shares @ 35.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$8.58
$5.58
YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
8 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$7.90
$4.90
YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$4.46
$1.96
YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
4 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$4.35
$1.35
YES
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
4 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$4.05
$2.31
YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$3.60
$1.69
YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$3.33
$2.33
NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
3 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$3.30
$0.30
NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$3.22
$1.06

Recent activity

REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 5, 06:19 UTC
TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.15Apr 5, 03:50 UTC
REDEEMWill Trump say "Third term" in March?$1.03Apr 5, 02:04 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Oman again in March?$1.00Apr 4, 23:58 UTC
TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$0.93Apr 4, 22:56 UTC
TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5$1.00Apr 4, 20:48 UTC
TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.92Apr 4, 19:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Heat (-17.5)$1.00Apr 4, 19:12 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Heat (-18.5)$1.03Apr 4, 18:44 UTC
TRADESELLWill Iran strike Oman again in March?$1.06Apr 4, 18:41 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Spurs (-2.5)$1.00Apr 4, 18:38 UTC
TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$1.88Apr 4, 18:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Oman again in March?$1.00Apr 4, 17:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$1.00Apr 4, 16:36 UTC
TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$1.00Apr 4, 16:06 UTC
TRADESELLWill Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$3.01Apr 4, 15:01 UTC
TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$0.94Apr 4, 14:44 UTC
TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$1.00Apr 4, 14:44 UTC
TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$0.94Apr 4, 14:41 UTC
TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$1.00Apr 4, 14:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

24% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry82 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $1.38
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 3, 21:47 UTC
Last active: Apr 5, 06:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 23:04:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data