Sardonic-Caper
0x2d6ce0b703efb60f8f356246bcdb98544a54e3f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$998.06
Total PnL
$-610.54
Realised
$-1.51
Win rate
39%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1210 shares @ 16.6¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$241.40
$40.53
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1170 shares @ 17.3¢·now 13.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$159.71
$-42.47
- NO
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$30.50
$-5.00
- NO
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
49 shares @ 64.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$30.02
$-1.48
- YES
Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027?
75 shares @ 46.7¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$28.18
$-6.88
- YES
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
50 shares @ 65.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$26.25
$-6.25
- NO
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
50 shares @ 64.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$25.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?
41 shares @ 64.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$22.72
$-3.48
- YES
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
100 shares @ 52.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.50
$-31.50
- NO
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?
50 shares @ 65.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.75
$-12.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$17.20Jun 26, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$17.80Jun 26, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$17.20Jun 26, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$12.00Jun 26, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$12.20Jun 26, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.90Jun 26, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?$0.77Jun 26, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$0.54Jun 26, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?$0.42Jun 26, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?$0.13Jun 26, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$0.10Jun 26, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026?$0.00Jun 26, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?$9.50Jun 26, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLJon Favreau as Happy Hogan?$0.61Jun 26, 06:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.56Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$2.54Jun 26, 00:04 UTC
- REWARD$16.81Jun 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$2.49Jun 25, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Stinky by July 31?$2.03Jun 25, 21:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 09:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 18:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.