Sardonic-Caper
0x2d6ce0b703efb60f8f356246bcdb98544a54e3f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
189
Open notional
$6.7K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
21%
120 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- YES
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
1300 shares @ 39.6¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$422.51
$-92.50
- NO
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
565 shares @ 80.3¢·now 73.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$416.89
$-36.84
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
1350 shares @ 29.1¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$344.25
$-49.18
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
339 shares @ 88.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$293.24
$-6.63
- YES
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
288 shares @ 86.4¢·now 79.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$229.19
$-19.33
- NO
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?
262 shares @ 89.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$220.42
$-14.87
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
300 shares @ 63.1¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 27, 2027$184.50
$-4.93
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
273 shares @ 67.6¢·now 59.9¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$163.51
$-20.93
- NO
Will Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?
192 shares @ 87.9¢·now 82.8¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$158.82
$-9.82
- NO
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
279 shares @ 61.7¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.23
$-25.53
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$90.00Aug 14, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$91.00Aug 14, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$109.37Aug 14, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$3.99Aug 14, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.08Aug 14, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$47.13Aug 14, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$134.00Aug 14, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.08Aug 14, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?$2.30Aug 14, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$11.99Aug 14, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?$1.00Aug 14, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump endorse Marco Rubio in the 2028 US Presidential election?$2.56Aug 14, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?$1.19Aug 14, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$12.80Aug 14, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?$3.68Aug 14, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?$12.92Aug 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$9.63Aug 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$4.67Aug 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$98.17Aug 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?$0.04Aug 14, 12:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 120 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
120 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $21.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 13:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 120 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.