Frayed-Disguise
0x2e4d3b9df0f5497e81f0a8d5587730381f6740be
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$13.77
Total PnL
$-2.23
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$2.44
$1.44
- YES
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$2.17
$1.17
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$1.92
$0.92
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.85
$0.85
- YES
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$1.75
$0.75
- YES
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.69
$0.69
- YES
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.19
$-0.81
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.16
$-0.84
- YES
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$1.00Jan 27, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00Jan 27, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$1.00Jan 27, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?$1.00Dec 19, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$1.00Dec 19, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.00Dec 19, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?$1.00Dec 19, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$1.00Dec 19, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$1.00Dec 19, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?$1.00Nov 6, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$1.00Oct 16, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?$1.00Oct 16, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico $2.44Oct 16, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?$1.00Oct 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?$1.00Sep 9, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?$1.00Aug 21, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico $1.00Aug 13, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?$1.00Aug 4, 06:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 06:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 27, 08:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".