PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 4, 2026

Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Probability

38¢

-1.5pp

24h

-6.5pp

24h Vol

$1.3K

Liquidity

$31.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-8.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:35

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors

1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 38¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 6.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2407h with open resolution ambiguity.
4
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 2407.4h
LOW
16:35Signal
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 6.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
MEDIUM
16:35Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2407h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
16:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
15:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability down -6.5pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -8.0pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -6.5pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -6.0pp
to 41¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -6.0pp
to 41¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Aug 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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