Crisp-Scarf
0x2ed8f7a10686dbb0fb15f5c3335f30e0043793d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$36.6K
Total PnL
$4.0K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
84%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
10496 shares @ 81.0¢·now 75.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.9K
$-604.66
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
8131 shares @ 70.5¢·now 85.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.9K
$1.2K
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
5341 shares @ 71.9¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.5K
$701.26
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
2922 shares @ 74.4¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$2.6K
$397.63
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
3013 shares @ 54.1¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$659.32
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
1903 shares @ 83.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$1.8K
$155.98
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
1646 shares @ 82.3¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$213.37
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
1439 shares @ 75.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$1.3K
$258.24
- YES
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?
1170 shares @ 96.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.2K
$25.94
- NO
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
1235 shares @ 47.5¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$790.16
$203.86
Recent activity
- TRADESELLReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$34.73Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$506.42Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?$166.83Jul 28, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?$4.90Jul 27, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$1.00Jul 26, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$14.72Jul 26, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$47.54Jul 26, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$10.00Jul 26, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting?$1.32Jul 23, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?$483.00Jul 23, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?$357.79Jul 23, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?$290.40Jul 23, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?$1.72Jul 22, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting?$4.07Jul 22, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$83.79Jul 22, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$310.62Jul 22, 08:15 UTC
- REWARD$2.48Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$77.27Jul 21, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$2.00Jul 21, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$5.11Jul 21, 21:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $83.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 10:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.