Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Probability
54¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$8.36
Liquidity
$26.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1257h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 11.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1256.8h
- 15:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1257h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 54¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 54¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 54¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 54¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 54¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 54¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 54¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 54¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 54¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 54¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 54¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 60¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 54¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 54¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 54¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).