Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Probability
83¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$3.6K
Liquidity
$9.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 83¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $9.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5979.8h
- 20:13SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 83¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.5pp at 03:00 (to 87¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · +12.5pp → 79¢
- 19:00 · +15.0pp → 82¢
- 17:00 · +14.5pp → 82¢
- 15:00 · +14.5pp → 82¢
- 14:00 · +7.5pp → 74¢
- 12:00 · +7.0pp → 75¢
- 09:00 · +10.5pp → 82¢
- 08:00 · +11.0pp → 83¢
- 06:00 · +15.5pp → 87¢
- 05:00 · +14.5pp → 86¢
- 03:00 · +15.5pp → 87¢
- 02:00 · +13.5pp → 85¢
- 00:00 · +11.0pp → 82¢
- 23:00 · +12.0pp → 83¢
- 21:00 · +10.5pp → 82¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 82¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 76¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 79¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 66¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 70¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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