Bare-Stag
0x2fa801da750904fc348ccb9315a0b892377d4359
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-41.10
Realised
$6.81
Win rate
58%
148 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
553 shares @ 77.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$389.78
$-38.89
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
358 shares @ 89.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$324.21
$2.47
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
334 shares @ 87.6¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$259.77
$-32.49
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$142.31
$-0.07
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
270 shares @ 36.3¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$136.18
$38.26
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
140 shares @ 94.1¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$135.08
$2.83
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
146 shares @ 84.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$135.03
$11.76
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
133 shares @ 96.8¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$132.19
$3.03
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
213 shares @ 54.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$120.39
$4.14
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
131 shares @ 82.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$112.61
$4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$0.21Jul 23, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.13Jul 23, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$4.70Jul 23, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$4.67Jul 23, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$4.70Jul 23, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$9.09Jul 23, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$4.67Jul 23, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.93Jul 23, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYThermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 0%-2%?$0.01Jul 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$3.98Jul 23, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$5.50Jul 23, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$10.96Jul 23, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$16.48Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of July 20 2026?$0.10Jul 23, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$0.21Jul 23, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$5.84Jul 23, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$3.91Jul 23, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.06Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.04Jul 23, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.04Jul 23, 07:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 148 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
148 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 01:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 11:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 148 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.