Rigid-Shortwave
0x321490534c5f4e9c2d67dc10fd7e85e02e94f00e
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$147.98
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-58.65
Win rate
50%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
72 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.28
$5.76
- NO
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
41 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.00
$2.21
- NO
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
21 shares @ 93.4¢·now 61.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.75
$-6.57
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 59.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.00
$4.42
- NO
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 96.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.09
$0.18
- NO
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
5 shares @ 93.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.80
$0.11
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.00
$0.44
- NO
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?
2 shares @ 72.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.86
$0.42
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$0.03
- NO
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?
1 shares @ 34.0¢·now 98.1¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$0.98
$0.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?$21.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?$33.15May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$34.88May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$52.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?$54.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hamnet win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$96.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$276.00May 22, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?$11.85Feb 8, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?$2.88Feb 8, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be at least 72%?$21.30Feb 8, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLAnduril IPO before 2027?$23.68Feb 8, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?$264.60Jan 11, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike Somalia next?$120.12Jan 11, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike Somalia next?$281.32Jan 11, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike Somalia next?$6.09Jan 11, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike Somalia next?$1.71Jan 11, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$37.06Jan 11, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$196.46Jan 11, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Somalia next?$306.93Jan 11, 14:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $124.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 17:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 10:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.