Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
71¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$108.83
Liquidity
$16.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+17.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 71¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 564h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $16.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 563.6h
- 12:24SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 564h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 71¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 71¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 70¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 68¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 68¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 68¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 68¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 70¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 70¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 70¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 2¢-0.8pp
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will another candidate win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 13¢-0.8pp
Will Chanelle Torrez win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate D win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate F win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate H win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate J win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate L win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $3.5M
- 3¢-1.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $622.7K
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $493.6K
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $450.0K
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $379.6K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $373.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Idaho, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Idaho Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).