Dear-Hypothesis
0x32d1623dddbd4841a98da71e47f0436d2ef2b949
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$995.87
Total PnL
$-4.8K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- YES
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
705 shares @ 44.1¢·now 47.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$331.35
$20.20
- YES
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
619 shares @ 20.9¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$176.30
$46.62
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
716 shares @ 18.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$118.17
$-17.56
- YES
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2502 shares @ 3.9¢·now 3.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$86.32
$-12.08
- YES
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
545 shares @ 16.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$73.56
$-16.68
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
200 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$45.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
9673 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$33.85
$-10.71
- YES
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2600 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$32.50
$-9.10
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
100 shares @ 19.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$19.00
$0.00
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
70 shares @ 23.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.85
$1.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$4.56Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$7.63Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$11.37Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$8.73Jul 29, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$7.11Jul 29, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$21.80Jul 29, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.18Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.20Jul 29, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.13Jul 29, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.13Jul 28, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$26.16Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.31Jul 28, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$2.59Jul 28, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$110.10Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$4.67Jul 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$9.70Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$13.40Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$22.90Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$107.64Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.18Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $15.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 08:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.