Overcooked-Plowman
0x33739438875aee79e98a26f87320d984f0703716
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-200.90
Win rate
41%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
640 shares @ 79.1¢·now 81.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$522.04
$15.73
- NO
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
426 shares @ 83.2¢·now 95.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$404.09
$50.18
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
89 shares @ 85.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.27
$7.17
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
153 shares @ 35.1¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.72
$-0.88
- NO
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
45 shares @ 64.7¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$43.38
$14.40
- NO
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
50 shares @ 72.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$32.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
23 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$22.94
$5.00
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
29 shares @ 44.0¢·now 75.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.81
$9.12
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
23 shares @ 66.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.54
$6.66
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
85 shares @ 21.0¢·now 23.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$20.09
$2.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.50Jul 29, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.50Jul 29, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$0.61Jul 29, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$0.04Jul 29, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$5.71Jul 29, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$5.64Jul 29, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$6.04Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$6.25Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$6.25Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$5.62Jul 29, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$3.05Jul 29, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$6.94Jul 29, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.85Jul 29, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$3.92Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.73Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Patriot" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$3.03Jul 28, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$20.13Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$4.51Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Sister" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$29.84Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$7.14Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
54 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.