Daring-Liquor
0x33db47152223a9b30a1891902402ad7e3485417a
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-541.24
Win rate
69%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
518 shares @ 52.2¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$282.29
$11.87
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
539 shares @ 49.2¢·now 46.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$251.09
$-14.15
- NO
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 51.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$230.00
$26.00
- NO
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
821 shares @ 49.7¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$147.78
$-260.24
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
200 shares @ 78.8¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.00
$-14.50
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
300 shares @ 52.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$142.49
$-13.50
- NO
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
130 shares @ 75.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$117.40
$19.40
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
761 shares @ 14.4¢·now 14.4¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$109.59
$0.30
- OPENAI
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
608 shares @ 22.8¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$100.29
$-38.29
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
213 shares @ 35.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$77.83
$1.19
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$100.00Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.40Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$341.15Jul 13, 16:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$73.80Jul 5, 22:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $47.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 12:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.