Optimal-Root
0x371ca7c768d4129cacf0985443589d92e026c236
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
90
Open notional
$845.78
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-159.05
Win rate
45%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 90- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
734 shares @ 30.6¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.25
$-15.80
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
244 shares @ 29.5¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.02
$-0.13
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
354 shares @ 16.0¢·now 19.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$69.19
$12.65
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
144 shares @ 41.5¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.85
$-5.82
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
786 shares @ 7.6¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.07
$-9.08
- YES
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
365 shares @ 13.4¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.39
$-21.39
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
144 shares @ 19.3¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.87
$-1.84
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
147 shares @ 16.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.33
$-0.65
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
39 shares @ 33.3¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$23.11
$10.19
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.00
$2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$2.40Aug 16, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by December 31?$15.00Aug 16, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$10.80Aug 16, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on August 15, 2026?$4.39Aug 15, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$5.50Aug 15, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$8.50Aug 15, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$20.00Aug 15, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$7.00Aug 15, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on August 15, 2026?$5.39Aug 15, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?$0.00Aug 14, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?$0.01Aug 14, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$3.20Aug 14, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$6.60Aug 14, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$12.00Aug 14, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026?$2.34Aug 14, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$9.00Aug 14, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$25.36Aug 14, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$15.33Aug 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$19.80Aug 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 19, 2026?$5.00Aug 14, 08:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
62 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 18:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 17:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.