Dimpled-Foal
0x376441d19f56d43629d3872324dc2e648e13c5eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.1K
Total PnL
$-44.4K
Realised
$903.27
Win rate
40%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
6673 shares @ 48.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.8K
$629.92
- NO
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
803 shares @ 80.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$654.06
$11.96
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
687 shares @ 83.2¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$635.90
$64.34
- NO
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
851 shares @ 47.1¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$608.62
$207.68
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
498 shares @ 73.8¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$486.42
$119.06
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
2104 shares @ 12.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$389.16
$136.73
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
1861 shares @ 16.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.44
$-102.37
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
1016 shares @ 9.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$147.37
$55.90
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
400 shares @ 15.2¢·now 17.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$70.37
$9.75
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
310 shares @ 10.5¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$50.99
$18.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on July 22?$2.45Jul 22, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) close above $570 on July 10?$1.14Jul 10, 09:05 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$72.62Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?$340.00Jul 1, 19:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30?$40.00Jul 1, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?$380.00Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$1.5KJul 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?$253.68Jul 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?$1.5KJul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?$259.31Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?$275.30Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?$229.31Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?$59.77Jul 1, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?$980.55Jul 1, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?$150.00Jul 1, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$27.15Jul 1, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$3.4KJul 1, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?$184.21Jul 1, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)$67.64Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?$150.00Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
48 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 23:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 12:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.