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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?

Probability

11¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-0.7pp

24h Vol

$4.00

Liquidity

$1.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1589h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 8.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1589.4h

    LOW
  • 13:07Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1589h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlAmbiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (8.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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