Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$4.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1589h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1589.4h
- 13:07SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1589h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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