UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?

Probability

11¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$14.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 09:00Apr 27, 2026, 08:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 1

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1544.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.1pp at 4d ago (to 12¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 4d ago · +3.1pp → 12¢
  • 4d ago · +3.1pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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