0x38c022fa971d718b5b80ce46e334afe703bf3b73
0x38c022fa971d718b5b80ce46e334afe703bf3b73
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$34.45
Total PnL
$-110.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
35 shares @ 98.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$32.57
$-2.43
- NO
Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 88.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.89
$-0.11
- UP
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
65 shares @ 75.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-49.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
52 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-49.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-4.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on October 30?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.71
- YES
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$1.02Jul 20, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$1.01Jul 6, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$1.00Jul 5, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$1.00Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$1.01Jul 4, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$1.00Jul 2, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$1.00Jul 2, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B?$1.01Jun 30, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 30, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$1.01Jun 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$1.00Jun 29, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$1.01Jun 28, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B?$1.00Jun 25, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24?$1.00Jun 24, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24?$1.00Jun 24, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Myers be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$1.00Jun 24, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.00Jun 19, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.00Jun 19, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$1.02Jun 19, 12:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 19:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.