Rundown-Regard
0x39aaed185b92e99a78249610cc14a589b764583c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$13.0K
Total PnL
$2.4K
Realised
$730.04
Win rate
81%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
7745 shares @ 71.3¢·now 77.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.0K
$509.97
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
7378 shares @ 9.6¢·now 22.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.7K
$963.94
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
1961 shares @ 75.6¢·now 77.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.5K
$39.13
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
2401 shares @ 22.5¢·now 22.3¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$534.25
$-5.17
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
456 shares @ 33.7¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$447.77
$293.83
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
551 shares @ 39.7¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$239.66
$20.86
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
285 shares @ 63.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$232.24
$52.72
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
551 shares @ 39.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$228.64
$9.84
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
862 shares @ 24.6¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$219.77
$7.34
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
862 shares @ 7.7¢·now 23.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$202.10
$135.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4AM ET$294.41Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 28, 4AM ET$430.00Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$25.85Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$84.82Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$40.00Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$20.16Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$153.63Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$47.60Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$48.01Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$151.60Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.24Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$0.39Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$50.41Jul 28, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$15.96Jul 28, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$38.25Jul 28, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$12.05Jul 28, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$1.33Jul 28, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$6.84Jul 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$6.84Jul 28, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Atputies (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group B$6.84Jul 28, 11:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
36 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $47.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 08:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.