0x3d03c46d2e4594ea6fa03f7b571342d8ee249d52
0x3d03c46d2e4594ea6fa03f7b571342d8ee249d52
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-68.29
Realised
$-9.86
Win rate
82%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
166 shares @ 93.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$165.98
$11.32
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
115 shares @ 83.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$98.22
$2.32
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
161 shares @ 58.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$92.67
$-2.18
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
65 shares @ 93.6¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$65.28
$4.03
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
235 shares @ 24.9¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.32
$4.92
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
303 shares @ 20.3¢·now 18.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$55.45
$-5.93
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 93.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.74
$3.32
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
80 shares @ 54.9¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.93
$-1.11
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?
37 shares @ 82.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$37.30
$6.61
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
35 shares @ 67.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$34.60
$10.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.08Jul 28, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.41Jul 28, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 06:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$13.00Jul 28, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.47Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.47Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.80Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.33Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.33Jul 28, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 28, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 28, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.43Jul 28, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 28, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 28, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 28, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 28, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 28, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 28, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.45Jul 28, 01:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 06:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.